How to use the Rent vs Own Home tool

Buy with a mortgage, or rent and invest the difference? Part 1 shows how to use the tool and its Sensitivity page. Part 2 shows how every figure is worked out. Every demo is the real tool, running live in your browser. Press Pause on one to try it yourself.

The short version

  1. Start from a city

    In Quick Start, search a city and pick a home type. Its price, rent, running costs and loan terms fill the form.

  2. Make it yours

    The home and the loan on Home, the rent on Rent, savings, price growth and the horizon on Assumptions.

  3. Read who ends ahead

    One sentence says which path ends ahead and by how much. The chart and the table show every year. The Sensitivity page sets several homes side by side.

Nothing is uploaded. Every figure is worked out in your browser. This guide is general information, not financial advice.

The screen

Inputs on the left, the answer and the chart beside them, the detail under the chart. Point at a part in the list to see where it is.

  1. Inputs

    Quick Start (a city, then a home type), save and open, then three tabs: Home, Rent and Assumptions. The chevrons fold the card to a slim Inputs rail.

  2. The answer

    One sentence: which path ends ahead, by how much, and when owning pulls ahead. Then Show in today's money and four figures.

  3. Comparison

    Net equity, Liquid cash or Accumulated cost each year, a line per path. Share and ⟳ sit top right.

  4. Details

    The Own snapshot and Rent snapshot, Cashflow by year and What this assumes, both opening from their chevrons.

The Sensitivity page, linked under the header as the Sensitivity Analysis Tool, runs the same model on the same inputs, a column per home.

  1. The bar

    Currency Symbol, Multi-currency, then the grid's CSV open, ⬇ CSV and Compare.

  2. A column per scenario

    Its name, the ⚑ Quick Start, duplicate and delete. + Scenario adds one.

  3. Shared by every scenario

    Time horizon, Risk-Free Rate, Initial cash and Monthly housing budget: one figure for the whole table.

  4. Each column's own home

    The home, the loan, its costs and the rent, a cell per column.

  5. Results

    Compare on a metric At year, then Own, Rent and Own minus rent for each column.

Top right on both pages, Tour replays a one minute walk through the page, and Guide opens this page.

Quick Start

A typical home in one of 33 cities, from a studio to a four-bedroom house, with its local price, rent, running costs and loan terms. Each figure and its source is on the Quick Start assumptions page.

On a phone, press Full screen under a demo and turn the phone sideways to read it.

Open the inputs, find Perth, pick a two-bedroom house
  1. Open the inputs

    On a first visit the card is folded to a rail, so the answer has the room. Click Inputs to open it; it stays the way you leave it.

  2. Search a city

    Type in Search city: a city, its country or its currency. Pick one from the list.

  3. Pick a home

    Home type lists only what that city's market has. The line under it says where the figures come from.

  4. Read the answer

    The form fills and the answer follows at once. There is no Run button.

  • A Quick Start is a fresh start. It resets every field first, so nothing from the last home carries over.
  • Then change anything. The tool keeps your figures in this browser for your next visit.

The Home tab

The home you would buy, the loan you would take, and what owning costs on top of the loan.

Perth, 2BR house: a bigger deposit, a staged loan, setup cost in dollars
  1. Price and deposit

    Property price, then Down payment as a share of it. The amount shows under the slider.

  2. Simple or Detailed

    Simple is one rate, principal and interest. Detailed adds Mortgage type and a Mortgage rate schedule: periods by year of the loan, each Fixed or Floating.

  3. The floating band

    A floating period runs at the middle of its range. The chart shades the low and the high.

  4. Costs of owning

    Setup cost in dollars or as a % of the price, then Ongoing costs of owning a year, month or week, fixed or a % of the home's value.

  • A switch restates the figure. 4.51% of an $855,000 price becomes 38,560.5 dollars, not 4.51 dollars. A change of frequency does the same.
  • Detailed costs. The Detail control above the costs lists each one by name, each with its own basis and growth.
  • Cost = interest only (Detailed) picks what Accumulated cost counts. It never moves net equity.

The Rent tab

The rent you would pay instead, how fast it rises, what renting costs on top, and an optional third path that rents first and buys later.

Perth, 2BR house: rent a month, faster rent growth, Rent-Then-Buy
  1. Rent and its growth

    Rent amount a week, month or year (a switch converts it), then Rent growth a year.

  2. Costs of renting

    Ongoing costs of renting: contents insurance, moving, connections. Fixed, or a % of yearly rent.

  3. Rent-Then-Buy

    Enable Rent-Then-Buy, then Buy at year: the years of renting before it buys.

  4. A third line

    A dashed line joins the chart, changing colour the year it buys, and the answer names where it ends.

  • Rent-Then-Buy buys at the price by then, grown by house price growth, with the same deposit share and a new loan on the same terms.
  • It shares the money. Left blank, the budget and the starting cash grow to fund its later deposit, which lifts Own and Rent by the same amount.

The Assumptions tab

The guesses about the future, and the money both paths start with and live on.

Perth, 2BR house: growth from past prices, then a set budget
  1. Prices and savings

    General inflation, then Risk-Free Rate (what spare cash earns) and Time horizon.

  2. Property growth

    House price growth (RPPI) and Selling cost. Show tool works the growth out from past prices: Calculate CAGR writes it in.

  3. Cash and the budget

    Initial cash and Monthly housing budget, both optional. Blank, each covers what every path needs.

  4. The lead stays

    A budget moves what each path ends with, not the gap between them.

  • General inflation changes no figure in the plan. It only sets how Show in today's money reads them.
  • Budget annual increase appears once a budget is set, for wage growth or inflation.
  • A warning shows under the tabs when a set budget or cash leaves a path below zero.

The answer and the chart

The sentence at the top is the whole answer. Under it: the money it is read in, four figures and the chart.

Perth, 2BR house: owning ends $850k ahead
  1. The answer

    Which path ends ahead after the horizon and by how much, when owning pulls ahead for good, and each path's net equity.

  2. Today's money

    Show in today's money on divides every figure by general inflation. Off, figures read as the bank account will.

  3. Four figures

    Equity difference, Breakeven year, the Initial cash both paths start with, and the Monthly housing budget range.

  4. The chart

    Net equity, Liquid cash or Accumulated cost. Hover a year to read every line.

  • Blue is owning, gold is renting. Neither is good or bad: they are the two options, so the answer is never coloured as a gain or a loss.
  • Breakeven is for good. It is the year owning gets ahead and stays ahead to the horizon, found from the end backwards.
  • Zoom and pan the chart with the wheel or a drag; ⟳ resets it.

Snapshots, cashflow and assumptions

Under the chart, the working behind the answer.

The snapshots, the year-by-year table, what it assumes
  1. Snapshots

    Each path in the final year: net equity, accumulated cost, house equity, cash, the repayment and the rent.

  2. Cashflow by year

    Opens from its chevron. Own cashflow, Rent cashflow or Rent-Then-Buy cashflow; ⬇ CSV saves it.

  3. What this assumes

    The figures this plan rests on, in plain sentences, from your own inputs.

  • Every row adds up. Cash at start, plus the budget and cash interest, less what the year cost, is cash at end.

Save, export and share

The tool keeps your plan in this browser between visits. The rest makes something to keep or send.

Save, open and Share
  1. Save or open a file

    The two icons beside Quick Start write the whole plan to a file and read one back, on the English or the Indonesian page.

  2. Share

    The chart as SVG or PNG, a copy to the clipboard, a link that opens your plan, or an embed for a web page.

Same inputs, two screens

The Sensitivity page runs the very same engine on the very same fields, laid out as a table: a row per field, a column per home. Point at a field in the list to see it on both.

Rent vs Own: the fields on their tabs, one home.
Sensitivity: the same fields as rows, a column per home.
  1. Currency

    One symbol for the page; on Sensitivity, Multi-currency gives each column its own.

  2. Property price

    The same field, once per column.

  3. Down payment

    A slider on one, typed on the other, both % of price.

  4. Detail

    Simple or Detailed. On Sensitivity it is set once for every column.

  5. Mortgage rate

    One rate in Simple; periods in Detailed.

  6. Mortgage term

    The years the loan is repaid over.

Rent vs OwnSensitivityWhat differs
Currency SymbolCurrency Symbol, in the bar; Multi-currencyMulti-currency gives each column a currency and an exchange rate, and reads every result in a base currency.
Property price, Down paymentProperty price, Down paymentPer column. Down payment is typed to two decimals.
Detail, Mortgage type, Cost = interest onlyMortgage detail, Mortgage type, Cost = interest onlySimple or Detailed is one choice for every column; the type and the toggle are per column.
Mortgage rate, Mortgage rate schedule, Mortgage termMortgage rate, Rate, period 1, 2 and on, Mortgage termPer column.
Setup cost, Ongoing costs of owning, Ongoing cost growthSetup cost type, Setup cost, Own cost type, Own cost frequency, Ongoing cost (own), Own cost growthThe unit picker becomes a row of its own. Own costs detail is one choice for every column.
Rent amount, Rent growthRent frequency, Rent amount, Rent growthPer column.
Ongoing costs of renting, Ongoing cost growthRent cost type, Rent cost frequency, Ongoing cost (rent), Rent cost growthPer column; Rent costs detail is one choice for every column.
House price growth (RPPI), Selling costHouse price growth (RPPI), Selling costOn the Assumptions tab here, with the home's rows there: they belong to a home, so each column has its own.
Risk-Free Rate, Time horizon, Initial cash, Monthly housing budget, Budget annual increaseThe same, under Shared by every scenarioOne figure for every column, so no home wins with more money or more time. Blank cash and budget take the most any column needs.
Enable Rent-Then-Buy, Buy at yearNoneRent-Then-Buy is on the main page only.
General inflation, Show in today's moneyNoneSensitivity reads in future's money. Turn today's money off here to compare figure for figure.
Net equity, Liquid cash, Accumulated costCompare on, At yearOne metric and one year for every column; Compare charts them all together.
  • What it adds. Several homes, cities or loans on one horizon, one savings rate, one starting cash and one budget, in one currency or several.
  • What it holds fixed. The model: a column on its own gives the main page's figures. The Perth house's Own minus rent reads +$1.78m there: the main page's +$850k in today's money, counted in future's money instead.

The Sensitivity page

Each column is a scenario. Fill one from a city, set the next beside it, and read the answers across.

A Perth house beside a Perth apartment
  1. Fill a column

    The ⚑ beside a column's name opens every home of every city. Type to narrow it, then pick one.

  2. And the next

    Another column, another home. In a new currency, Multi-currency turns on by itself.

  3. The shared rows

    On Auto, Initial cash and the budget match the column that needs most, and say which.

  4. Read across

    Own, Rent and Own minus rent per column: blue when owning wins, gold when renting does.

The same house at a point higher rate, compared
  1. Copy and change

    Duplicate a column, then change one cell. + Scenario adds a copy of the last column.

  2. Compare on

    Pick Net equity, Liquid cash or Accumulated cost, and the year to read it At year.

  3. Compare

    Every scenario on one chart, own and rent lines, each scenario in its own colour.

  4. Save the grid

    ⬇ CSV writes the grid, CSV rebuilds it, and the icons in the header save or open the whole page.

  • Per column. Under the results, ⬇ saves that column's own or rent cashflow, and the chart icon draws it alone.
  • Drag a column by its grip to reorder it; no figure changes.
Part 2

How the numbers work

What each field means, where it enters the sums, and what moving it does to the answer and why. All of it is read from the tool's engine (engine.js), which both pages share.

The model in one picture

Two households start with the same cash and spend the same monthly housing budget for the same years. One buys: the deposit and setup costs leave its cash on day one, and the budget pays the mortgage and the owning costs. The other rents: it keeps all its cash and pays the rent and renting costs. Whatever either has left over each month is saved at the Risk-Free Rate. At the horizon the tool asks what each would own if the home were sold.

Own = VT Γ— (1 βˆ’ s) βˆ’ BT + CTownnet equity, owning
Rent = CTrentnet equity, renting
Cash each month Cm = Cmβˆ’1 Γ— (1 + i)1/12 + (budgetm βˆ’ outgoingsm)
  • VTthe home's value in the last year
  • sSelling cost, as a share of the sale
  • BTthe loan still owed
  • CTeach path's cash at the horizon
  • ithe Risk-Free Rate a year
  • ma month; budget and outgoings are that month's

The headline, Equity difference, is Own minus Rent. Both paths share the budget and the starting cash, so those cancel out of it, and what is left is the whole decision:

Own βˆ’ Rent = [VT(1 βˆ’ s) βˆ’ BT] βˆ’ D(1 + i)T βˆ’ Ξ£ (Om βˆ’ Rm)(1 + i)(N βˆ’ m)/12
  • Dthe deposit plus setup costs, paid on day one
  • Omowning's outgoings: repayment plus owning costs
  • Rmrenting's outgoings: rent plus renting costs
  • Nmonths in the horizon, T Γ— 12
  • Opportunity cost. The deposit is not free money: left in the bank it would have grown at the Risk-Free Rate. The middle term is that growth.
  • The monthly gap compounds too. In year 1 owning usually costs more than renting, and the renter saves the difference. As rent grows and the repayment stays level, the gap closes and can turn; after the loan is repaid, owning costs only the running costs.
  • Leverage. The home's growth applies to the whole price, not just the deposit. That is why House price growth moves the answer most.

Budget and Initial cash change how much each path ends with, never which ends ahead or by how much. They decide how much is saved, and both paths save it at the same rate. The demo on the Assumptions tab shows it: a $6,000 budget lifts both lines and leaves the lead where it was.

Home: the property and the mortgage

The loan is what the deposit does not cover. A principal and interest loan is repaid in equal monthly instalments; each one pays the month's interest first and the rest cuts the balance.

Loan L = P Γ— (1 βˆ’ d)
Repayment M = L Γ— r(1 + r)n(1 + r)n βˆ’ 1each month; Interest Only: M = L Γ— r
Balance B ← B βˆ’ (M βˆ’ B Γ— r)each month
  • PProperty price
  • dDown payment, as a share
  • rMortgage rate Γ· 12
  • nMortgage term Γ— 12 months
FieldWhat it isIn the mathsRaise it
Currency SymbolThe symbol every amount wears.A label only: nothing is converted.no effect
Property priceWhat the home costs today.P: the loan, the deposit, a % setup cost, and the value the home grows from.β–² home valueβ–² repaymentrent held: β–Ό owning's lead here
Down paymentThe share of the price paid upfront. 100% buys outright.d: a smaller loan, and more cash leaving Own on day one. The renter keeps that cash invested. It helps owning while the mortgage rate is above the Risk-Free Rate.β–Ό repaymentβ–² owning's lead here
DetailSimple: one rate, principal and interest. Detailed: a loan type and a rate schedule.Simple sets the type to principal and interest and Cost = interest only on, whatever the hidden fields hold.a mode
Mortgage typePrincipal & Interest or Interest Only (Detailed).Interest Only pays L Γ— r and builds no equity; the whole balance is paid from cash at the end of the term. It costs owning while the mortgage rate is above the Risk-Free Rate.Interest Only: β–² interestβ–Ό owning's lead here
Cost = interest onlyWhat Accumulated cost counts (Detailed).On: interest and owning costs, since principal becomes equity. Off: whole repayments. Net equity never reads it.Accumulated cost only
Mortgage rateThe yearly rate on the loan.r in the repayment; interest each month is B Γ— r.β–² repaymentβ–Ό owning's lead
Mortgage termThe years the loan is repaid over.n: longer means a smaller repayment but more interest. Once repaid, owning costs only its running costs.β–Ό repaymentβ–² interest
Mortgage rate schedulePeriods by year of the loan, each Fixed or Floating in a range (Detailed).Each new rate re-spreads the balance over the term left. Floating runs at the middle of its range; the chart's band is the low and the high; the automatic budget pays the high.wider range: β–² budgetband on the chart

Watch out: a bigger deposit is not always better. Each dollar of deposit saves the mortgage rate and gives up the Risk-Free Rate. In the Perth example (6.4% against 4.6%) a 30% deposit lifts owning by $37k; if savings earned more than the loan cost, it would do the opposite.

Home: the costs of owning

Setup costs are paid once, from cash, and never come back: the day you buy, your net equity falls by them. Running costs are paid every month from the budget, on top of the loan.

Setup = u Γ— Por a dollar amount
Owning costs in year t = c Γ— (1 + gc)t βˆ’ 1or k Γ— Vtβˆ’1, a share of the value at the start of the year
  • uSetup cost as a % of the price
  • cOngoing costs of owning, a year
  • gcOngoing cost growth
  • kthe % of home value, when the type is a %
FieldWhat it isIn the mathsRaise it
DetailSimple: one setup cost and one running cost. Detailed: a named list of each.The list is summed; each item has its own basis and growth.a mode
Setup cost (stamp duty, legal, etc.)One-off costs at purchase: duty, conveyancing, inspections, bank fees.In D, paid from cash on day one. Rent-Then-Buy scales it to its later price.β–² upfront costβ–Ό owning's lead
Ongoing costs of owningRates, water, insurance, maintenance, strata, land tax. A year, month or week; fixed, or a % of the home's value.c or k, in owning's outgoings Om.β–² owning costβ–Ό owning's lead
Ongoing cost growthHow fast a fixed owning cost rises a year.gc. Hidden for a %, which grows with the home.β–² owning costβ–Ό owning's lead

Watch out: a % of value grows with the home. 1% of value at 4.5% growth costs 3.6 times as much in year 30 as in year 1. A fixed amount grows only at its own rate, 0% unless you set one.

Rent, and Rent-Then-Buy

Rent steps up once a year at rent growth. Renting costs are fixed amounts growing at their own rate, or a share of the year's rent.

Rent each month in year t = R0 Γ— (1 + gr)t βˆ’ 1
Rent-Then-Buy's price = P Γ— (1 + g)Ya new loan of (1 βˆ’ d) of it, over the full term
  • R0Rent amount, as a month (a week Γ— 52 Γ· 12)
  • grRent growth
  • gHouse price growth
  • YBuy at year
FieldWhat it isIn the mathsRaise it
Rent amountThe rent for the same home today, a week, month or year.R0, in renting's outgoings Rm. A switch of frequency restates the amount.β–² rent paidβ–² owning's lead
Rent growthHow fast rent rises a year.gr: compounds, so it matters most late in the run, when the repayment has stayed level.β–² rent paidβ–² owning's lead
DetailSimple: one renting cost. Detailed: a named list.The list is summed.a mode
Ongoing costs of rentingContents insurance, moving, connections. No rates or upkeep.Fixed and growing at its own rate, or a % of the year's rent; in Rm.β–² renting costβ–² owning's lead
Ongoing cost growthHow fast a fixed renting cost rises a year.As for owning. Hidden for a %.β–² renting costβ–² owning's lead
Enable Rent-Then-BuyA third path: rent first, buy later.Rents exactly as Rent does until the end of year Y, then buys at the price by then: same deposit share, setup scaled to the price, a new loan over the full term, the rate schedule from its year 1.adds a lineOwn minus Rent unchanged
Buy at yearThe years of renting before it buys, up to the horizon less one.Y: later means a dearer home, owned for fewer years.β–² price paidfewer years owned

Assumptions: growth, savings, time and money

The home grows at the end of each year. Cash earns the Risk-Free Rate, compounded monthly so a year earns exactly that rate. Net equity counts the home as sold that year, less selling costs.

Home value Vt = P Γ— (1 + g)t
Today's money = figure in year t(1 + Ο€)t
Automatic budget, year t = max(Ot, Rt, Rent-Then-Buy'st)repayments at the top of any floating range
Automatic Initial cash = max(D, a year of rent and renting costs, what Rent-Then-Buy needs today)
  • gHouse price growth (RPPI)
  • Ο€General inflation
  • Ot, Rteach path's monthly outgoings that year
  • Ddeposit plus setup cost
FieldWhat it isIn the mathsRaise it
General inflationHow fast prices in general rise.Ο€, in today's money only. No figure in the plan reads it.β–Ό figures in today's moneywhich path wins unchanged
Risk-Free RateWhat spare cash earns, like a savings account. The same in every path.i: every cash balance, the deposit's opportunity cost D(1 + i)T, and the monthly gap.β–² savingsβ–Ό owning's lead
Time horizonThe years modelled, and the year net equity is read.T.usually β–² owning's lead
House price growth (RPPI)How fast the home's value rises a year.g: the home's value, a % owning cost, and Rent-Then-Buy's price.β–² home valueβ–² owning's lead
Selling costAgent, marketing, legal and seller taxes on a sale.s: house equity is V(1 βˆ’ s) βˆ’ B in every year, as if sold that year.β–Ό house equityβ–Ό owning's lead
Calculate CAGRGrowth worked out from past prices.(last price Γ· first price)1/years βˆ’ 1, from the earliest and latest rows only; it writes House price growth.a helper
Initial cashCash you hold today. Blank: enough for every path's start.Own starts with it less D; Rent with all of it.β–² both pathslead unchanged
Monthly housing budgetMonthly cash for housing. Blank: the dearest path's cost each year.Budgetm in every path's cash line.β–² both pathslead unchanged
Budget annual increaseHow fast a set budget grows a year.Budget Γ— (1 + increase)t βˆ’ 1. Inert while the budget is automatic.β–² both pathslead unchanged

Watch out: the renter earns the Risk-Free Rate, not the share market. "Invest the difference" here means a savings account. Raising the rate to a share market's average return adds the return without the risk, which flatters renting.

Several homes on one budget (the Sensitivity page)

Columns only compare fairly when each plays with the same money for the same time. So the page works out one plan for the whole table, then runs every column through the same engine with its share of it.

Budget in month k = max over columns of needjratej(k)in the base currency; each column gets it back at its own rate
Rate path ratej(k) = spotj Γ— (1 + ij)k/12(1 + ibase)k/12Moves with the rate gap
  • ja column
  • ka month from today
  • needjwhat column j alone would need that month
  • ijthe Risk-Free Rate of the column's currency
FieldWhat it isIn the mathsRaise it
Time horizon, Risk-Free RateOne run length and one savings rate (one per currency) for every column.As on the main page, for each column.as on the main page
Initial cashThe same cash in every column. Auto: the most any column needs up front.A cheaper home starts with the same cash and banks what it does not spend.β–² every columnOwn minus rent unchanged
Monthly housing budgetThe same monthly cash in every column. Auto: the most any column needs that month.The formula above; a set budget grows by Budget annual increase.β–² every columnOwn minus rent unchanged
Multi-currencyHomes priced in different currencies.Each column runs in its own currency; balances are read at that year's rate, and accumulated cost at the rate on the day each cost was paid.a mode
Scenario currency, Exchange rateA column's currency, and how much of it one unit of the base buys today.spotj. Changing the currency relabels the figures; it does not convert them.β–Ό that column in the base
Exchange rate pathMoves with the rate gap, Held at today's rate, or an expected change per currency.The first is the formula above (interest parity), so cash earns the same in either currency. The last moves by the Expected change vs base currency each year.a choice
Compare on, At yearThe metric and the year every column is read at.Reads the engine's rows; changes no figure.reading only

Watch out: two currencies are never added as one. A home from a Quick Start city in a new currency turns Multi-currency on. Turned off again, columns in different currencies are flagged above the results.

Worked example: Perth, two-bedroom house

The Quick Start figures: $855,000 price, 20% deposit, 6.4% over 30 years, 4.51% setup, $7,900 a year to own (growing 2.5%), $650 a week rent (growing 3.5%), $1,400 a year to rent (growing 2.5%), 4.5% house price growth, 2.8% selling cost, 4.6% Risk-Free Rate, 30 years, 2.5% general inflation.

Owning's lead after 30 years

By the identity in the model card: the home's equity, less the deposit and setup invested, less the monthly gap invested.

  1. Loan$855,000 βˆ’ 20% deposit of $171,000$684,000
  2. Repayment$684,000 Γ— 0.533% Γ— 1.00533³⁢⁰ Γ· (1.00533³⁢⁰ βˆ’ 1), with 0.533% = 6.4% Γ· 12$4,278 a month
  3. Paid on day one, D$171,000 deposit + 4.51% Γ— $855,000 setup ($38,561). Also the automatic Initial cash: renting needs only $35,200$209,561
  4. Year 1 gapOwn: $4,278 + $7,900 Γ· 12 = $4,937. Rent: $650 Γ— 52 Γ· 12 + $1,400 Γ· 12 = $2,933. The budget is the dearer, $4,937, so the renter saves$2,003 a month
  5. Home in year 30$855,000 Γ— 1.045³⁰$3,202,247
  6. House equity$3,202,247 Γ— (1 βˆ’ 2.8%) βˆ’ $0 owed (the loan ends in year 30)$3,112,584
  7. Deposit and setup, invested instead$209,561 Γ— 1.046³⁰ (3.854)βˆ’$807,718
  8. The monthly gap, investedEach month's outgoings grown at 4.6% to year 30. Own: repayments $3,252,413 + owning costs $674,703. Rent: rent $3,286,151 + renting costs $119,568βˆ’$521,398
  9. Own minus rent, future's money$3,112,584 βˆ’ $807,718 βˆ’ $521,398$1,783,468
  10. In today's money$1,783,468 ÷ 1.025³⁰ (2.098). The tool's Equity difference: +$850k$850,255
  • Where the two paths land. Own $3,305,675 and Rent $1,522,207 in year 30, or $1.58m and $726k in today's money, as the answer's second line says.
  • Why owning catches up. Rent is $2,933 a month in year 1 and $7,877 by year 30; the repayment stays at $4,278. Renting becomes the dearer of the two in year 19, though owning is ahead for good from year 5.

What moves the answer

Every input moved on its own, from the Perth base case, on the tool's own engine.

Owning's lead after 30 years, when one input movesBase case: the Perth, 2BR house Quick Start, owning ahead by $850k in today's money. Each bar moves one input and keeps the rest: 1 point on a rate or a share, 10% on an amount, 5 years on a term, 10 points on the deposit.
Input loweredInput raised
  1. House price growth4.5% β†’ 3.5% / 5.5%βˆ’$372k+$491k
  2. Time horizon30 β†’ 25 / 35 yearsβˆ’$245k+$288k
  3. Rent growth3.5% β†’ 2.5% / 4.5%βˆ’$190k+$227k
  4. Risk-Free Rate4.6% β†’ 3.6% / 5.6%+$164kβˆ’$213k
  5. Mortgage rate6.4% β†’ 5.4% / 7.4%+$159kβˆ’$166k
  6. Rent amount$650 β†’ $585 / $715 a weekβˆ’$157k+$157k
  7. Property price$855k β†’ $770k / $941k+$45kβˆ’$45k
  8. Mortgage term30 β†’ 25 / 35 years+$39kβˆ’$30k
  9. Down payment20% β†’ 10% / 30%βˆ’$37k+$37k
  10. Ongoing costs of owning$7,900 β†’ $7,110 / $8,690 a year+$32kβˆ’$32k
  11. Setup cost4.51% β†’ 3.51% / 5.51% of price+$16kβˆ’$16k
  12. Selling cost2.8% β†’ 1.8% / 3.8% of sale+$15kβˆ’$15k

Read it from the top: the longest bar is the input your answer rests on most. Monthly housing budget and Initial cash would be bars of zero. Measured by guides/_sensitivity.mjs.

  • The answer rests on four guesses about the future: house price growth, how long you stay, rent growth, and the gap between the savings rate and the mortgage rate. A point on a rate, or five years on the horizon, moves it by $150k to $500k.
  • Apart from the rent, the figures you can look up matter far less. Price, deposit, term, running costs, duty and selling costs each move it by less than $50k here. Spend your time on the guesses.
  • Growth cuts both ways, unevenly. A point more adds more than a point less takes away: compounding over 30 years.
  • No single move flips this case. Owning stays ahead in every row, but the breakeven is year 5: sell sooner and the setup and selling costs leave renting ahead.
House price growth a point up, a point down
  1. The base case

    Perth, 2BR house: owning ahead by $850k in today's money.

  2. Growth up a point

    5.5%: the home is worth a third more in year 30. The lead grows by $491k and the breakeven comes in year 3.

  3. Growth down a point

    3.5%: the lead shrinks by $372k, and owning pulls ahead only in year 9.

  4. Back to the base

    4.5% again. Try it yourself: press Pause and drag any slider.

What it leaves out

What the answer rests on, beyond the figures you enter. What this assumes, under the results, lists the ones your plan uses.

  • No tax. None on the gain when the home is sold, none on the interest savings earn, no land tax or rental deductions unless you put them in the running costs.
  • One growth rate, every year. No cycles, no crash, no boom. Your home is one property, not the index its growth came from.
  • The renter's savings earn the Risk-Free Rate. Savings in shares would earn more on average, with risk the tool does not model.
  • The home is sold at the horizon. Net equity takes off the selling cost each year. If you would stay on, that cost is never paid.
  • The loan is plain. No refinancing, offset account, extra repayments, lender's mortgage insurance or fees beyond the setup cost. A floating rate runs at the middle of its range.
  • Rent is renewed forever at rent growth, with no forced moves beyond the renting costs.
  • A shortfall is carried, not borrowed. If a set budget or cash runs a path below zero, its cash line goes negative and the page warns you; the mortgage is the only loan.
  • Two rates, two conventions. The repayment uses the mortgage rate Γ· 12, as lenders quote it; savings compound monthly to exactly the Risk-Free Rate over a year.
  • Quick Start figures are local estimates as of the month shown, with sources on the Quick Start assumptions page. General inflation stays at 2.5% for every city: set your own.

Do not lean on it when you may sell near the breakeven year, you cannot defend your growth figure within a point, an interest-only balance falls due that your savings cannot cover, or you compare homes in two currencies without thinking about the exchange rate path.

This guide and the tool are general information, not financial advice. Check the figures that matter to you, and talk to a licensed adviser before you buy.

Ready to run your own?

Open the tool Or compare several homes on the Sensitivity page